For those who are trying to estimate events with high uncertainty, you may want to use a Bayesian Belief Network.  aka Bayesian Network.  Like how we estimated the no-fly zone for Syria.

There are several software programs to do this, here are three I’ve used:

OpenMarkov – far more advanced than Bayesbuilder, also has tutorials available on their website.

Tetrad – is a program which creates, simulates data from, estimates, tests, predicts with, and searches for causal and statistical models. Backed by NASA and the office of Naval Research. There is alot going on under the hood. I like OpenMarkov better for Bayesian Networks.  This can do much more.

Bayesbuilder – The simplest to learn. Has several shortcomings, but you can finish a 10 node model in under an hour.

 

All of these run in .jar or java and may be tricky to get to run. IMHO.